In recent years, the number of T visa applications filed by victims of trafficking has seen a dramatic increase. This rise underscores both the growing awareness of the T visa program and the increasing need for protections afforded under this visa category. However, this influx of applications has also had a noticeable effect on the rate at which cases are adjudicated, raising important questions about the system’s capacity to handle the rising demand while maintaining robust protections for survivors.

Sharp Increase in Applications Received

Between Fiscal Year (FY) 2021 and FY 2024, the number of T-1 applications filed by victims of trafficking rose by an astounding 801%. In FY 2021, 1,702 applications were received. This number jumped to 3,070 in FY 2022—an increase of 80% in just one year. By FY 2023, applications skyrocketed to 8,598, marking a 180% increase compared to FY 2022. In FY 2024, applications reached 15,332, representing a further 78.4% increase from FY 2023.

It is important to note that these figures solely represent T-1 applications filed by victims of trafficking and do not include applications filed by family members of T visa recipients. The percentage increase in applications for family members, if included, would likely be even higher.

Adjudication Rates: A Decreasing Trend

While the surge in applications is a positive sign of increased awareness, we have seen a decline in the adjudication rate. Adjudication refers to the percentage of applications received that are either approved or denied within the fiscal year.

• In FY 2021, the adjudication rate was 79.5%, indicating that a majority of cases were processed relative to applications received.
• By FY 2022, this rate decreased to 68.5% as the volume of applications began to outpace processing capacity.
• In FY 2023, the adjudication rate fell sharply to 32.8%, reflecting the challenges of managing an unprecedented number of applications.
• In FY 2024, the adjudication rate improved slightly to 35.4%, suggesting efforts to address the backlog, though it remains well below earlier levels.

This decline highlights the need for increased resources and efficiency to ensure timely adjudication without compromising the quality of review.

Approval Rates Remain High

Despite the significant rise in applications, the approval rate—calculated as the percentage of processed applications (approved or denied) that result in approval—has remained high. 

• In FY 2021, the approval rate stood at 61.3%.
• FY 2022 saw an increase to 81.5%, a notable improvement despite the growing caseload.
• In FY 2023, the approval rate remained strong at 77.4%, even as the system faced mounting pressures from the surge in applications.
• In FY 2024, the approval rate held steady at 78.2%.

Future Projections Based on Current Trends

Using an AI model to analyze historical adjudication rates and trends, the projections reflect the lower adjudication rates and approval percentages observed during FY 2021 and FY 2022. For these projections, the adjudication rate was set at an average of 74%, based on FY 2021 and FY 2022 data, and the approval rate averaged approximately 71.4% for the same years. This projection assumes that USCIS continues adjudicating applications at the current rate and adheres to the statutory cap of 5,000 T-1 approvals per fiscal year. Any approvals beyond this cap are placed on a waiting list.

Waiting List Regulations:

According to regulations (8 § CFR 214.210(b)), when the numerical limit of 5,000 is reached:

1. Priority Assignment: USCIS will place applicants who receive a bona fide determination on a waiting list and assign priority based on the date the application was properly filed, with the oldest applications receiving the highest priority for processing.
2. Processing in the Next Fiscal Year: In the next fiscal year, USCIS will issue T-1 numbers to applicants on the waiting list in the order of their assigned priority.
3. New Applicants: After USCIS processes eligible waiting list applicants, any remaining T-1 numbers for that fiscal year will be issued to new eligible applicants in the order their applications were filed.

Projected Waitlist Impact:

Given the lower adjudication rates and reduced approval percentages, the waitlist impact for FY 2025 through FY 2028 could be approximated as:

• FY 2025: Approximately 289 applicants will be waitlisted.
• FY 2026: The waitlist is projected to grow to around 1,489 applicants.
• FY 2027: The waitlist may reach 2,789 applicants.
• FY 2028: By this year, the waitlist could expand to 4,089 applicants.

These projections highlight the compounding nature of the backlog under a lower adjudication framework. For example, applicants waitlisted in FY 2025 will not receive their T visas until FY 2026, and delays for new applicants could extend even further under such constraints.

It is important to note that these projections are based on historical trends and adjusted assumptions about adjudication rates. Changes in USCIS processing capacity, policy adjustments, or resource allocation could alter these outcomes significantly.

Balancing Demand and Capacity

The dramatic increase in T-1 applications is a testament to the program’s importance for survivors of trafficking. However, it also underscores the critical need for systemic enhancements to manage the growing demand effectively. Investing in resources, streamlining processes, and adopting innovative adjudication strategies will be essential to maintaining high approval rates while addressing the backlog of cases.

Conclusion

The rise in T-1 visa applications highlights a significant increase in demand for protection under this visa category. While adjudication rates have decreased due to the surge, approval rates remain consistently high. Addressing these challenges proactively is crucial to ensuring timely and effective processing for trafficking survivors.