USCIS reports that 80% of Form I-914 (T visa) cases are currently completed within 32 months, based on the agency’s live Case Processing Times tool.[i] The agency’s own historical data shows the median T-1 case took 28.4 months in fiscal year 2026, through May 31, 2026, up from 14.9 months just two fiscal years earlier.[ii]

Those numbers describe the T visas in general. For an individual applicant, they raise the question of what this means for their individual cases.

Using USCIS’s own published statistics, it is possible to build a data-based estimate for any filing period. Applying that method to a case filed in January 2025, for example, finds that at the pace USCIS is adjudicating T-1 cases right now, that case is not projected to reach a decision until on the order of 2042, a total wait of roughly 17 years from filing to decision.

This post explains where that number comes from and how anyone can check it.

The most important variable in any estimate like this is the pace at which USCIS is currently deciding cases, and that pace has fallen sharply.

USCIS’s two most recently reported quarters show:[i]

That is an average of 364.5 T-1 decisions per quarter, or roughly 121.5 per month, nationwide. This estimate uses the average of the two most recently reported quarters rather than a longer historical average because the pace has changed sharply and recently. A longer average would blend in a faster period that no longer reflects current conditions. Using the trailing four quarters instead produces a wait of approximately 8.6 years rather than 16.4; using the full fiscal year 2025 average produces approximately 6.4 years. The two-quarter figure was chosen to reflect the most current pace, not the most conservative or most severe available number.

For comparison, fiscal year 2025’s four quarters averaged approximately 940 T-1 decisions per quarter, more than double the current pace.

Fiscal year 2025’s pace was itself already low relative to the backlog USCIS was facing. Fiscal year 2026, to date, is running roughly 61% below even that reduced pace. This is the reality behind the current 28.4-month median and 32-month live-tool figures: not a temporary dip, but a continuing decline.

How the estimate is calculated

Since fiscal year 2008, USCIS has published, every quarter, how many T-1 principal applications it received and how many it approved or denied. Adding those figures together over time produces two running totals: cumulative applications received, which places every applicant in a single line ordered by filing date, and cumulative applications adjudicated, which shows how far that line has actually moved.

The difference between the two, at any point in time, is how many applications filed before a given case are still waiting on a decision. Dividing that gap by the current adjudication rate, currently an average of 364.5 T-1 decisions per quarter (about 121.5 per month) based on USCIS’s two most recently reported quarters, produces an estimate of how long the remaining wait will be.

The table below runs that calculation for every month from October 2023 through March 2026. Find the month closest to your filing date in the left column, and read across for USCIS’s own cumulative receipt count as of that month, how many applications were filed before it and still await a decision, and the resulting estimate. Months are not separately reported by USCIS, which publishes receipts by quarter; each month’s figure divides that quarter’s total evenly across its three months, so a month’s figure is an estimate, not a reported count. The “applications ahead of you” and wait figures use the current cumulative adjudicated total and current rate for every row; they do not change from row to row, only the filing month does.

This is not a fixed prediction. It is what USCIS’s own numbers produce if the agency continues adjudicating T-1 cases at the pace of its two most recently reported quarters. If that pace changes, in either direction, every estimate in this table changes with it, in direct proportion.

As of the most recently reported quarter (FY2026 Q2, ending March 31, 2026), USCIS has adjudicated 25,723 T-1 applications in total, going back to FY2008. That is the number subtracted from each row below to get 'applications ahead of you.

Limitations

This estimate follows USCIS’s own stated processing order. Federal regulation (8 CFR 214.210(b)(1)) provides that T-1 waiting list priority is assigned by filing date, with the oldest applications receiving the highest priority. USCIS’s Policy Manual states that the agency “generally adjudicates applications in the order in which they are received.”[iv] The clearest regulatory language on this point addresses the waiting list that applies when the annual 5,000-case cap is reached, a cap USCIS rarely reaches; explicit guarantees of strict receipt-date order for cases that clear the Bona Fide Determination stage and proceed directly to final adjudication are less clearly stated. This estimate treats receipt-date order as the general rule, consistent with USCIS’s stated policy, while acknowledging it is not a guarantee in every individual case.

It cannot account for case-specific delays or accelerations. Requests for evidence, background check delays, and other case-specific circumstances can move an individual case earlier or later than this aggregate estimate predicts, in either direction.

It holds the adjudication rate constant. The estimate above uses the average of the two most recently reported quarters. A single quarter’s pace, or a longer historical average, would produce a different result.

It relies on USCIS’s most recently published figures, which are subject to revision. USCIS revises quarterly receipt figures in later reports as filings continue to be logged retroactively. This table uses the most recently published version of each quarter’s data.

It is not a legal determination. This is a data-based estimate, not a case-specific prediction, and not a substitute for advice from a qualified legal practitioner about an individual case.

Methodology note: figures are drawn from USCIS’s quarterly Form I-914 statistical reports, fiscal years 2008 through 2026 (second quarter). “Adjudicated” refers to the sum of approvals and denials reported for T-1 principal applicants in each period. Historical median processing time and current live processing time figures are drawn separately from USCIS’s Historical National Median Processing Time table and Case Processing Times tool, respectively, and use different methodologies from each other and f